Climate, conflict, and African development: Edward Miguel at TEDxBerkeley
The world--most of its educated population, at least--seems to be relatively aware of the geological and environmental implications of rising temperatures. In his Ted Talk, our very own UC Berkeley adds another dimension to the discussion: increased violence and conflict, a detriment that is often overlooked. He reveals studies that predict that a mere 2 degree increase that is meant to take place by 2050 will increase violent conflicts by up to 40%.
Narrowing in on development in Africa, Miguel discusses the economic turn that the continent is taking: slowly, but surely, in the last 15 years Africa has seen increased economic growth, incomes, and population. This turn could potentially go bleak with rising temperatures, and consequently, increased conflict in a region that already faces considerable violence and corruption.
He claims that while the 2 degree increase in temperature will have negative effects worldwide, these effects will be especially present in Africa. This is largely because African economies rely extensively on agriculture, and because there is
African economies rely extensively on agriculture, where the majority of the population still work as farmers. Further, African farmers typically don't have irrigation, relying instead of rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, when rains fail, crops fail, and incomes plummet. In the event of a drought and dropping economic activity, government resources and services dwindle and sadly, it is all too common for militias and opposition groups to step in.
Will this become a hindrance to Africa's recent economic turnaround?
According to Miguel and the studies he uses to evidence this assertion, the answer is a resounding yes.
80% of African countries have suffered from armed conflict for at least a single year, though much more commonly, they last for years, and sometimes, decades. The result is the wrecking of society: incomes drop (eg: In Sierra Leone, average incomes fell by 40% during its civil war from 1991 to 2002), thousands to millions are displaced, injured, or killed.
If global warming were to take place, temperatures rise, and violence arises, armed conflicts such as that which devastated countries like Sierra Leone will become and more prevalent, hindering the progress that Africa has been making in the past ten or so years.
If this is the case, what can the world do in response? What can Africa do in response?
Miguel's answer: "A worldwide research effort is already underway, getting started to try to solve these problems. How can we do that? Some scientists are developing new crops that are resistant to extreme climate. Others are trying to figure out how we can introduce insurance schemes--maybe weather insurance schemes--to help African farmers adapt to climate change. But the truth is: we don't know the answer. We're trying to find out the answers ... Of course the best solution would be not to have global warming in the first place; the best solution would be to reduce emissions enough, so the world doesn't warm by two or three or four degrees Celsius in the next few decades."
Climate change is not Africa's fault, and Africa should not have to pay an excessive and excruciating price for the global warming.
I actually saw this talk live at Tedx Berkeley. The part that really moved me was the fact that the very things that cause global warming (industrialization from developed countries) increases conflict in Africa. Yet, such countries do not have any cost, but actually make a profit.
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